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The direst potential impacts of the global heating for the UK have been detailed by scientists, encompassing a searing 4C increase in average temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea level. A separate possibility predicts a drop of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and energy demand.

Credible Extremes, Not Guarantees

These consequences, some of which are connected to climate tipping points, are considered as improbable but plausible. The scientists said that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in planning that had rendered the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are credible," said the professor who led the research. "The UK has been planning in the absence of the tools to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided decision-makers what they need to plan for future conditions they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Scenarios

A second set of dire projections sets out the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the end of the century. These show that temperatures could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be 300% of normal levels.

The chance of the catastrophic events coming to pass could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to address global heating and how the planet's climate will react. This research was compared to security threat evaluations or resilience checks for economic stability.

Key Possibility Details

• Four-Degree Warming: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action fails or if powerful amplifying effects including the tropical forests becoming a net carbon source release its huge repository of carbon. This would result in intense and enduring heatwaves and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would be severely challenged and water supplies would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the polar regions melt abruptly, submerging seaside communities. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity scatter sunlight from warming the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Unthinkable

The severe models could be used to inform the development of long-term infrastructure, such as new towns, energy plants and urban drainage systems. Understanding these climate risks could also speed the push to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The research formulated the extreme models using a mix of past data and records, digital projections and climate physics. These outcomes omit international cascading effects including the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

The research was initiated as part of a official climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have cautioned that too little consideration was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and examine the risks for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "very weak" by environmental groups.

A national response said: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a clean energy superpower. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the consequences."